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The supply of bisphenol A seriously exceeds the demand. How will the market evolve?

2024-03-25

1. Statistics on new bisphenol A production capacity in 2023

Bisphenol A production capacity will continue to expand in 2023, including 480,000 tons/year for a company in Lianyungang, Jiangsu, 200,000 tons/year for a company in Guangxi, 200,000 tons/year for a company in Heilongjiang, and 170,000 tons/year for the second phase of a company in Ningbo, Zhejiang. A total of 1.05 million tons of new production capacity has been put into operation, and domestic bisphenol A production capacity will increase to 4.875 million tons in 2023.

2. Analysis of the degree of integration of the bisphenol A industry in 2023

The degree of integration of the domestic bisphenol A industry will change to a certain extent in 2023, because the newly put into production in Guangxi and Heilongjiang in 2023 are upstream phenolic ketone and bisphenol A supporting production, but the downstream is not synchronized, so the domestic bisphenol A industry in 2023 The degree of upstream integration has improved. Among the 18 bisphenol A production companies, 12 are equipped with phenol and ketone devices, and the proportion of upstream integration has increased to 67%. Among the 18 bisphenol A production companies, 15 are equipped with phenol and ketone devices. Devices, the proportion of downstream integration has dropped to 83%; among the 18 bisphenol A production companies, 8 companies have supporting facilities for phenolic ketone and downstream devices. The degree of upstream and downstream integration of bisphenol A in 2023 will be 44%.

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3. Bisphenol A production and industry start-up in 2023

According to statistics from Baichuan Yingfu, my country's bisphenol A production in 2023 will be 2.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.47%; the 200,000-ton unit in Heilongjiang newly put into operation in 2023 and the second phase of a 170,000-ton unit of an enterprise in Ningbo will both be put into operation in December 2023. , its contribution to supply in 2023 will be limited, but a 480,000-ton unit of a Shandong company that was put into operation at the end of 2022 will achieve stable operation in 2023 and contribute significantly to output in 2023.

According to statistics from Baichuan Yingfu, the average annual industry operating load of my country's bisphenol A industry in 2023 will be 71%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.06%. Although new production capacity for downstream epoxy resin and PC will be put into production in 2023, the growth rate of downstream demand is far less than the growth rate of bisphenol A supply. In order to alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand, the operating load of the bisphenol A industry has declined.

According to statistics from Baichuan Yingfu, since 2019, my country's bisphenol A supply has shown an overall increasing trend. In the first half of 2020, due to the impact of public health emergencies, upstream and downstream construction started, and output decreased compared with 2019. From 2021 to 2023 The annual output growth rate is obvious. Due to the excessive growth rate of the supply side, the supply and demand imbalance of the bisphenol A industry has been caused, and the price has plummeted. In order to alleviate the imbalance of supply and demand in the industry and the resulting profit and loss situation of the industry, the production capacity utilization of bisphenol A production enterprises The overall rate shows a downward trend.

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4. Bisphenol A import and export situation in 2023

According to statistics from Baichuan Yingfu, in terms of imports, as of November 2023, the total import volume of bisphenol A is approximately 161,100 tons, a decrease of 236,900 tons, or 59.52%, compared with the same period in 2022; in terms of exports, as of November 2023 In November, my country's total bisphenol A export volume was approximately 4,200 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons, or 62.08%, compared with the same period in 2022.

From the perspective of importing countries and regions, my country's imports of bisphenol A in 2023 will still mainly come from South Korea. As of November 2023, the total import volume will be approximately 57,000 tons, accounting for 35.37%; my country's import volume from Thailand in 2023 As of November 2023, the total import volume is approximately 42,400 tons, and the import volume from Taiwan, China is 36,400 tons.

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According to statistics from Baichuan Yingfu, 2019 is a turning year for my country’s bisphenol A import volume. Before 2019, my country's imports of bisphenol A continued to increase; after 2019, my country's imports of bisphenol A continued to decrease. The main reason for the analysis is that since 2019, my country has started a "wave of production expansion" for bisphenol A. Domestic self-supply has gradually increased, foreign dependence has continued to decline, and imported supply has gradually lost its competitive advantage in the country.

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Although exports have shown an overall increasing trend since 2019, the growth rate is not large. The export advantage of domestic bisphenol A is not obvious, and international competitiveness needs to be improved. Exports are an important direction in the future, but there is still a difficult road to go.

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5. Forecast of domestic bisphenol A supply in 2024

The planned new production capacity of bisphenol A in 2024 is 1.14 million tons; plus the 370,000 tons of new production capacity released in 2023.12 will be fully released in 2024. Under normal operation of the above devices, my country's monthly theoretical output of bisphenol A will increase by 12.58% in 2024. 10,000 tons, daily external sales will increase by 4,137 tons.

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With supply in the bisphenol A industry seriously exceeding demand, domestic bisphenol A companies are expected to start adjusting their operations more frequently in 2024, and the possibility of long-term shutdowns is not ruled out. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of the bisphenol A industry will drop to 50% in 2024 - 60%.

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